Liquidity
Fed balance sheet, money supply, and funding-related factors are merged into a clearer liquidity picture instead of remaining isolated data points.
Framework
Three building blocks shape the interpretation layer
LiquidityPulse does not treat every series as equally important. Instead, it groups individual inputs into a smaller number of macro building blocks that are easier to interpret together.
Growth
Industrial Pulse and the yield curve help frame whether the backdrop looks more resilient, cooling, or more fragile.
Stress and regime
Credit, the dollar, and other drivers are condensed into a regime view that names the current market phase more directly.
Interpretive Layers
What LiquidityPulse makes visible
LiquidityPulse creates a readable interpretive surface, not an academic macro database. Each layer answers a concrete interpretation question.
Measure the backdrop
Liquidity, growth, and stress inputs establish the broad macro environment.
Compress the drivers
The strongest inputs are surfaced as the top forces shaping the current picture.
Classify the regime
The system turns those observation layers into a more accommodative, balanced, or restrictive regime read.
Data Inputs
Examples of the underlying inputs
LiquidityPulse is built on public macro and market data, but the value comes from how these inputs are arranged into a more readable surface.
Liquidity and funding
Fed balance sheet, M2, Reverse Repo, Treasury General Account, and related funding conditions.
Rates and macro
Yield curve, SOFR, and broader macro series that help frame growth and tightening conditions.
Risk and market context
Credit spreads, the dollar, and assets such as Bitcoin to connect macro backdrop with risk appetite.
Chart Guide
How the main charts on the site can be interpreted
The website uses a small set of charts repeatedly. Each one is there for a reason and should answer a specific interpretation question.
Composite
Liquidity Index
- What it shows
- A custom net-liquidity measure built from M2 plus the Fed balance sheet minus reverse repo minus the Treasury General Account.
- Why it matters
- It brings several core liquidity levers into one readable line and makes shifts in conditions easier to spot.
- Interpretive context
- A rising line has historically often coincided with a more accommodative liquidity backdrop, while a falling line has more often been associated with tighter conditions.
Composite
Industrial Pulse
- What it shows
- A worker composite built from monthly harmonized copper and WTI oil.
- Why it matters
- It condenses two cyclical commodity series into a more stable proxy for industrial activity and demand.
- Interpretive context
- A rising trend points to stronger real activity, while a falling trend suggests softer industrial momentum.
Derived
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y
- What it shows
- A derived spread calculated as the US 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield.
- Why it matters
- It is a classic stress and business-cycle indicator.
- Interpretive context
- An inverted or flat curve has historically often been associated with a more cautious macro backdrop than a clearly positive curve.
- Reference threshold
- Zero is the key reference threshold: below it, the curve is inverted.
Market proxy
Bitcoin
- What it shows
- A globally traded proxy for risk appetite and market momentum.
- Why it matters
- It often reacts quickly to liquidity, sentiment, and positioning.
- Interpretive context
- A stable uptrend has often been associated with firmer risk appetite, while sharper weakness has more often coincided with more cautious market behavior.
Public paths
How the public pages work together
The homepage shows the current state: regime, drivers, and the key charts.
This methodology page explains how those layers can be interpreted. The iPhone app is the more focused path if you want LiquidityPulse in a more compact, native format.
Interpretation Notes
The methodology is designed to support judgment, not replace it
LiquidityPulse is not investment advice. Regimes, lead-lag views, and interpretive layers are tools for context and interpretation.
Historical relationships can be useful, but they are not guaranteed to persist, and correlation is not proof of causation.
Next Step
Explore the live site or the iPhone app
The methodology explains the structure. The live site and iPhone app show how LiquidityPulse is experienced in practice.